1.30 – Cheltenham – Thursday 16th March 2023.
Turners Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) (Registered As The Golden Miller) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+):
Distance: 2 miles 3 furlongs 168 yards on the New Course.
This Novice Chase is a race run over 20 furlongs and had its inaugural introduction at the 2011 meeting. It is open to horses five years old and upwards and was upgraded to Grade One status for the first time in 2014. With just twelve renewals to work from there aren’t yet any strong patterns established but they are beginning to develop. It lacks the prestige of the Arkle and the Brown Advisory (formerly RSA) but it appeals to Trainers who are reticent to target their horses at the more attritional latter. Based on RPR ratings the winner of this race has produced a better performance than some Brown Advisory and Arkle winners and this has become a serious race in it’s own right.
Positive Trends to consider:
9 of the 12 winners were Irish-trained
11 of the last 12 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
Willie Mullins has trained 4 of the last 12 winners
9 of the last 12 winners had won a Graded Chase before
11 of the last 12 winners ran in a Graded Novice Chase last time
9 of the last 12 winners won a Graded Novice Chase last time
9 of the last 12 winners had 7 or less runs over hurdles
10 of the last 12 past winners had run at the Festival before (5 had won)
11 of the 12 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
9 of the last 12 winners came from the top 2 in the betting
11 of the last 12 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10 of the last 12 winners returned 7/1 or shorter
9 of the last 12 winners returned 4/1 or shorter
3 outright winning favourites in the last 8 renewals
9 of the last 12 winners won last time out
11 of the last 12 winners were French (4) or Irish (7) bred (6 of last 7 Irish bred)
5 of the last 12 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
6 of the last 12 winners ran between 47-54 days ago
7 year-olds have won 8 of last 12 renewals
7 of the last 8 winners rated 151+
3 of the last 12 winners were owned by Gigginstown House Stud
Gordon Elliott is 2 from 5
JP McManus has owned 2 of the last 4 winners
Negative trends to note:
Be careful of horses rated 146 or less
Just 3 British-trained winners so far (0-9)
The top-rated horse is just 1 from 12
Since 1990 all Festival Novice Chase winners have been aged 8 or younger
4 winning favourites in 12 renewals (1 co favourite)
5 year-olds are 0 from 7
Just 2 of the last 12 winners had less than 3 career chase starts
Just 3 winners had been off for more than 54 days
Analysis:
If Mighty Potter repeats what he has been doing in Ireland then he is entitled to win this. He is ten pounds superior to his rivals and has won all three starts over fences, the last two in Grade One company. He has achieved those victories with the minimum of fuss and he arguably be long odds on had it not been for his visit here last season. On that occasion he boiled over in the preliminaries and crashed through a rail on the way to the start. Deemed fit to race, he was eventually pulled up. That may well be an isolated incident and probably unlikely to be repeated. However his place at the head of the market means there are some inflated prices to be had amongst some decent opposition. Appreciate It was the best of these over hurdles and is bred to be better for this step up in trip. He was an easy winner of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle in 2021 and finished in midfield in last season’s Champion Hurdle and that experience of the Festival will hold him in good stead. Banbridge finished just ahead of Appreciate It in the Irish Arkle last time out but his best form is on better ground than he is likely to get here. Last season’s Martin Pipe winner will relish today’s trip but he was just over 18 lengths behind Mighty Potter in soft ground over an extended 20 furlongs in the Grade One Drinmore in December and it’s hard to see him closing the gap if the ground doesn’t dry out considerably. More appealing at the relevant prices is Balco Coastal. He wasn’t anywhere near as good as the principals in this race over hurdles but he was progressive. He has has improved again in his three starts over fences and promises to take another step forward returned to a left handed track. With the defection of Banbridge this race no longer appeals as an e/w proposition but we will take our chances with a small win stake
Selection:
Balco Coastal. 1 pt win. Available at 16/1. (Unibet, BOG)
2.10 – Cheltenham – Thursday 16th March 2023.
Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+):
Distance: Three miles on the New Course.
The Pertemps Final is a Grade Three handicap hurdle race open to horses five years and upwards who have finished in the first four on at least one occasion in a Pertemps Hurdle Race (Series Qualifier) since the start of the current season. The longest of the three Handicap Hurdle races at the Festival, it has seen the less exposed horses come to the fore in recent seasons.
Positive Trends to consider:
The Irish have won the last 6 of last 7 renewals
Last 11 winners were aged 8 or younger
Sire Du Berlais has won 2 of the last 4 renewals
9 of the last 15 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
11 of the last 22 winners were from outside the top 5 in the betting
11 of the last 12 winners were rated 138 or higher
11 of the last 16 winners were rated between 132-142 (inc)
10 of the last 12 winners were rated between 138-148
11 of the last 18 winners had won over at least 2m7f
9 of the last 11 winners had run 10 or less times over hurdles before
6 of the last 10 winners ran 7 or less times over hurdles
7 of the last 9 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
8 of the last 22 winners won their last race
5 of the last 7 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
3 of the last 14 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins and Pipe-trained runners
Respect JP McManus owned horses
Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 5 renewals
Jockey Davy Russell has ridden 3 of the last 7 winners
Respect horses with headgear (7 since 2000)
6 of the last 7 winners wore a tongue-tie
6 of the last 7 winners Irish-trained
5 of the last 7 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)
Negative Trends to note:
Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
Since 2000 only 1 winner didn’t have a run that calendar year
5 year-olds have won just twice since 1973
Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
Only 2 winning favourites in last 17 years
Just 1 winner in the last 40 aged 10+
Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 19 (One third and two 2nds in the last 9 renewals)
Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single figures are just 3 from 48
Analysis:
The way Thanksforthehelp sauntered through the race in winning at Chepstow last time out was visually impressive. Going back through the years his stable were adept at laying out horses for a handicap plot. It’s not so easy to do that nowadays but their representative could easily have plenty in hand from his eleven pound higher mark of 128. The cheekpieces, step in trip and wind operation have obviously proved beneficial to him but he does face a much better calibre of opposition here. He may be up to the task but prices of around 4/1 in a race of this nature make little appeal. At much bigger prices Captain Morgs, Coltor, Hector Javilex and Glimpse Of Gala are preferred. Captain Morgs would appear to be Nicky Hendertson’s second string behind walking On Air but his stalemate has yet to encounter soft ground and his Dam was better under faster conditions. Captain Morgs is a bit more exposed than some of his opposition but he has placed in nine of his thirteen starts over hurdles and produced a clear career best when upped to three miles for the first time when winning over C/D last time out. That came on good ground but he has a win in soft ground to his name and he seemed to benefit from the first time cheekpieces. He is bred to stay well and a seven pound higher mark may not stop him getting competitive. Coltor makes just his third start for Roger Fell and steps up to three miles for just the third time over hurdles. He went down narrowly over the trip last time out at Musselburgh and should be more effective on this track than the sharp bends of Musselburgh. A test of stamina suits him nowadays and he ran well in the Boodles at this Festival back in 2021. He handles soft ground and a four pound higher mark is manageable. Hector Javilex was impressive in winning over C/D on his penultimate start in soft ground and may have found the sharper test at Huntingdon against him last time out. His stablemate, Glimpse Of Gala, has to run from a career high mark and doesn’t have the assistance of his regular seven pound claimer but he is very tough and has improved in each of his starts this season. He revels in testing ground and the first time cheekpieces may help him find the necessary improvement he needs to get competitive.
Selections:
Hector Javilex. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 16/1. (Skybet – 1/5 odds first 8)
Captain Morgs. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 22/1. (Skybet – 1/5 odds first 8)
Coltor. 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 22/1. (Skybet – 1/5 odds first 8)
Glimpse Of Gala. 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 33/1. (Skybet – 1/5 odds first 8)
2.50 – Cheltenham – Thursday 16th March 2023.
Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy) (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+):
Distance: 2 miles 4 furlongs 127 yards on the New Course.
The Ryanair Chase is afforded Grade One status and is open to horses five years old and upwards. It’s run at a trip which is an intermediate between the Champion Chase and the Gold Cup and it was viewed by some, somewhat unfairly, that it’s a race for horses not good enough to win those Blue Riband affairs. However after 18 years it has established itself and gives connections a chance of success over a mid range trip that was only available at other Spring Festivals. It is usually run at a strong gallop and, more often than not, suits those that front run and stay the trip well.
Positive Trends to consider:
14 of the 18 winners had won at Cheltenham before
7 of the last 10 winners were 2nd season chasers
All 15 winners (since getting G1 status) had won over 2m4f
11 of the last 15 winners had won a Grade 1 Chase before
12 of the last 15 had won or placed at the Festival before
The King George VI Chase is often a good guide (7 from 29)
The previous year’s renewal is often a good guide
15 of the last 18 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
9 of the last 11 winners were aged 7 or 8 years-old
14 of the last 15 winners were rated 161+
Horse rated 170+ have won 4 of the last 5
4 of the last 18 winners were placed in the top 3 in the Ascot Chase last time out
14 of last 18 winners were fav or 2nd fav
11 of the last 15 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16 of the last 18 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
9 of the last 11 winners had 11 (or less) runs over fences
Trainers Jonjo O’Neill, David Pipe & Nicky Henderson are respected
Respect first time headgear (3 from 11)
9 of the last 15 winners didn’t win last time out
Last 9 winners were French-bred
All winners ran 5 or less times that season
5 of the last 7 winners trained by Willie Mullins
Last 11 winner aged 9 or younger
The Irish have won 6 of the last 7 renewals
Negative trends to note:
Avoid horses priced 7/1 or bigger
No winner aged 11 or older
Only 1 of the last 14 winners were aged 10
Just one winner rated 160 or below
Just 6 of the last 15 won last time out
No winner was having their Festival debut
Analysis:
If Shishkin repeats what he did in the Ascot Chase last time out then it’s difficult to see him being beat. After his well documented problems he has to prove he can string top class performances together but there really are no standout alternatives in opposition. Ga Law is the lowest rated horse in this race and faces a mighty task on paper. However he is the least exposed horse in the field and he may find the improvement he needs to run into a place.
Selection:
Ga Law. 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 33/1. (Bet365, Paddy Power, Unibet, BOG)
3.30 – Cheltenham – Thursday 16th March 2023.
Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (4yo+):
Distance: Three miles on the New Course.
Positive Tends to consider:
13 of the last 18 won last time out
7 of the last 9 winners were second season hurdlers
20 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
30 of the last 33 winners aged between 6-8 years-old
18 of the last 22 winners came from the top 4 in the betting
17 winners since 2000 returned in single-figures
8 of the last 21 were French Bred
Respect the Cleeve Hurdle and Long Walk Hurdle form
8 of the last 16 winners ran in the Cleeve Hurdle last time out
8 of the last 16 ran in the Cleeve Hurdle
19 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd in all their hurdling runs that season
14 of the last 18 winners started 10/1 or less in the betting
Respect past winners of the race (Flooring Porter has won the last 2 renewals)
17 of the last 26 winners had won 7 or less times over hurdles
3 of the last 5 winners ran in the Albert Bartlett the previous season
Negative Trends to note:
Avoid horses that didn’t finish either 1st or 2nd last time out
A 5 year-old is yet to win the race
Horses that have lost previously in the race don’t fare well
Trainer Willie Mullins has only won the race twice
The Irish are have won the race just 5 times since 1995 (but have won the last 2)
Avoid horses that were beaten in the race before
Horses wearing headgear are 0 from 74
Just 3 winners aged 9 in the last 33 renewals
Horses aged 10 or older have all been beaten since 1986 (0 from 62)
Analysis:
If the ground remains soft or deteriorates further then Teahupoo could be difficult but he is priced accordingly. There isn’t a real standout amongst the opposition but Home By The Lee has put in two career best performances on his last two starts and he appears to be a better horse than the one who finished sixth in this race last season. He has been seeing out his races strongly and the stiff finish here could play to his strengths. Versatile regarding ground conditions.
Selection:
Home By The Lee. 1.5 pts e/w. Available at 8/1. (Bet365, Unibet – 1/5 odds first 4, BOG)
4.10 – Cheltenham – Thursday 16th March 2023:
Magners Plate Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) (Class 1) (5yo+):
Distance: 2 miles 5 furlongs (2m4f127y) on the New Course.
Positive Trends to consider:
28 of the last 35 winners were officially rated 140 or less
11 of the last 14 winners carried under 11-0
Look out for French breds
14 of the last 18 winners had run from 25th Jan onwards
11 of the last 19 winners had won a race in Feb or March
Venetia Williams & Pipe-trained runners should be noted
The Pipe yard have won 7 of the last 25 renewals
17 of the last 22 winners returned at double-figure odds
22 of the last 31 winners had run at the Festival before (but 8 of last 11 were having Festival debut)
22 of the last 23 winners had run in no more than 16 chases
9 of the last 13 winners had 9 or less chase runs
18 of the last 23 winners came from outside the top 4 in the market
6 of the last 7 winners were novices or second season chasers
17 of the last 19 winners had raced that calendar year
Respect Gigginstown House Stud horses
4 of the last 7 winners won last time out
The last 4 winners had won at Cheltenham that season
Negative Trends to note:
Avoid horses that are yet to win at Class 3 or better
The Irish have only sent out 4 winners since 1982
Only 3 of the last 19 winners had run more than 12 times (fences)
4 winning favourites in the last 17 years
Only 5 of last 28 won with 11st+
Just 1 winner older than 9 in the last 11 years
Only 2 of the last 19 winners hadn’t run that calendar year
Analysis:
Horses toward the top of the handicap don’t tend to win this and things are further complicated because not many toward the bottom of the weights make much appeal. Datsalrightgino and Champagne Gold finally made the shortlist. Datsalrightgino has a progressive profile, is unexposed over today’s trip and could still be well weighted having put up career best performances on his last two starts. Normally seen on faster ground but showed soft conditions held no fears when second to Stage Star over C/D in his penultimate outing. First time cheekpieces could help him defy a career mark. Champagne Gold hasn’t been seen since running on to claim second over today’s trip on the Old Course here on good ground. It was soft underfoot when he won at Wexford in July and this eight year old Novice makes just his sixth start over fences this afternoon. He hasn’t been seen since October and only two of the last nineteen winners hadn’t raced in that calendar yard. However he has gone well fresh in the past and his powerful yard have had two winners and two place from their eight entries that have completed in the last two days here. Rachel Blackmore prefers Marvel De Cerisy but Aiden Coleman has been booked and their handicap winner yesterday wasn’t their first string on paper.
Selections:
Datsalrightgino. 1.5 pts e/w. Available at 17/2. (Bet365 – 1/5 odds first 6, BOG)
Champagne Gold – 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 33/1. (Bet365 – 1/5 odds first 6, BOG)
4.50 – Cheltenham – Thursday 16th March 2023.
Jack De Bromhead Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Dawn Run Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle) (GBB) (Class 1) (4yo+):
Distance: 2 miles 5 furlongs on the New Course.
This was a new addition to the Festival in 2016. Willie Mullins has won five od the seven previous renewals of this race. This race is chock full of unexposed Mares’ and who is going to improve and by how much is very difficult to gauge so it’s not a race that is of much interest to us from a betting perspective. We will keep our powder dry and take a watching brief.
Selection:
No Bet
5.30 – Cheltenham – Thursday 16th March 2023:
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (Sponsored By JRL Group) (GBB) (Class 2) (5yo+ 0-145):
Distance: Three miles two furlongs on the New Course.
Formerly staged on day two of the meeting, the Kim Muir was moved to the Thursday in 2009 and in doing so switched from the old course to the new course. The distance also increased from an extended three miles to 26 furlongs. That places more emphasis on stamina and the ceiling rating was raised from 140 to 145 ten years ago. This is an Amateur Riders’ race so jockey bookings were always something to take into consideration.
Positive Trends to consider:
Respect horse aged between 7-9 year-olds
11 of the last 15 winners failed to win earlier that season
10 of the last 11 winners ran off a mark of 137 or more
10 of the last 11 winners rated between 137-143
9 of the last 13 winners returned 9/1 or shorter (top three in the betting)
9 of the last 13 winners carried 11st 5lbs+
8 of the last 12 winners hadn’t win that season
10 of the last 14 winners ran in February
Look for Elliott, McCain, Pipe and Henderson-trained runners
Look for horses in the top half of the handicap
19 of the last 23 winners ran over at least three miles in their last race
Look for non-claiming amateur riders
8 of the last 12 winners wore headgear
11 of the last 14 winners came from the top 6 in the market
Jockey Jamie Codd has ridden 4 of the last 14 winners
Jockey Derek O’Connor 2nd 3 times and 1st in 2019
Owner JP McManus often does well in the race (3 of the last 11)
18 of the last 20 winners didn’t win last time out
Negative trends to note:
Just 5 Irish winners in last 39 years (but have won 5 of the last 9)
Horses that fell or unseated that season have a poor record
Avoid Paul Nicholls-trained horses – he’s just 1 placed horse from his last 24
Trainer Willie Mullins has a poor record in the race
Horses carrying less than 10-10 have a poor record
French breds are 1 from 74 since 2005
Jus 2 of the last 18 winners aged 10+
Avoid claiming jockeys – 3 from 102 since 2009
Just 2 of the last 20 winners won last time out
Analysis:
This race normally goes to those in the top half of the handicap who are toward the fore in the market and ridden by a non claimer. At big prices both Fontaine Collognes and Punitive don’t fit that criteria but they make some appeal nonetheless. Punitive is closely weighted with Anightinlambourn on their running on the old copurse over a furlong shorter on good ground in November but he can reverse that form granted this stiffer test. He seems to have been revitalised by the blinkers and, although disappointing in the Thyestes when last seen in January, he is unexposed over this distance. He won at Fairyhouse over 29 furlongs in soft ground in December so today’s test will hold no fears. Has to run from an eight pound higher mark than for that win but could still find improvement over staying trips. Fontaine Collognes also disappointed last time out but the ground wasn’t as slow as she would’ve liked and she may resume his progress given this stiffer test. Good Irish Amateur booked for a yard who had the first and third in this race last season. Fontaine Collognes makes just her fourth start over three miles plus and her mark is only three pounds higher than her last winning one.
Selections:
Fontaine Collognes. 0.75 pts e/w. Available at 18/1. (Boylesports – 1/5 odds first 6, BOG)
Punitive. 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 28/1. (Betfred, Skybet – 1/5 odds first 6)
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